牛津经济研究院-英国在线零售税的经济影响（英）-2021.11-46正式版.docx

OXFORDECONOMICSTHEECONOMICIMPACTOFANONLINERETAILSALESTAXINTHEUKANINDEPENDENTREPORTFORAMAZONUKNOVEMBER2020OXFORDECONOMICSABOUTOXFORDECONOMICSOxfordEconomicswasfoundedin1981asacommercialventurewithOxfordUniversity'sbusinesscollegetoprovideeconomicforecastingandmodellingtoUKcompaniesandfinancialinstitutionsexpandingabroad.Sincethen,wehavebecomeoneoftheworld,sforemostindependentglobaladvisoryfirms,providingreports,forecastsandanalyticaltoolsonmorethan200countries,250industrialsectors,and7,000citiesandregions.Ourbest-in-classglobaleconomicandindustrymodelsandanalyticaltoolsgiveusanunparalleledabilitytoforecastexternalmarkettrendsandassesstheireconomic,sialandbusinessimpact.HeadquarteredinOxford,England,withregionalcentresinNewYork,London,Frankfurt,andSingapore,OxfordEconomicshasofficesacrosstheglobeinBelfast,Boston,CapeTown,Chicago,Dubai,Dublin,HongKong,LosAngeles,Melbourne,MexicoCity1Milan,Paris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,andToronto.Weemploy400full-timestaff,includingmorethan250professionaleconomists,industryexperts,andbusinesseditors-oneofthelargestteamsofmacroeconomistsandthoughtleadershipspecialists.Ourglobalteamishighlyskilledinafullrangeofresearchtechniquesandthoughtleadershipcapabilitiesfromeconometricmodelling,scenarioframing,andeconomicimpactanalysistomarketsurveys,casestudies,expertpanels,andwebanalytics.OxfordEconomicsisakeyadvisertocorporate,financialandgovernmentdecision-makersandthoughtleaders.Ourworldwideclientbasenowcomprisesover1,500internationalorganisations,includingleadingmultinationalcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions;keygovernmentbodiesandtradeassociations;andtopuniversities,consultancies,andthinktanks.NOVEMBER2020AlldatashownintablesandchartsareOxfordEconomics,owndata,exceptwhereotherwisestatedandcitedinfootnotes,andarecopyright©OxfordEconomicsLtd.ThisreportisconfidentialtoAmazonUKandmaynotbepublishedordistributedwithouttheirpriorwrittenpermission.Themodellingandresultspresentedherearebasedoninformationprovidedbythirdparties,uponwhichOxfordEconomicshasreliedinproducingitsreportandforecastsingoodfaith.AnysubsequentrevisionorupdateofthosedataW川affecttheassessmentsandprojectionsshown.Todiscussthereportfurtherpleasecontact:HenryWorthington:hworthinatonOxfordEconomics4Millbank,LondonSW1P3JA,UKTel:+442039108000人OXFORDTABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary11. Introduction42. Howweassesstheimpactofanonlineretailsalestax52.1 Analyticalframework52.2 Policyassumptions62.3 Forecastconditionsin202263. Theeconomicimpactofanonlineretailsalestax93.1 Declineinonlinesales93.2 Lossinconsumerwelfareandsuppliers*margins93.3 "Revenue-equivalent"alternatives124. Distributionalandenvironmentalimpactsoftheonlineretailsalestax134.1 Consumerwelfareimpactbyhouseholdincomedeciles134.2 Impactontheelderlyandthedisabled154.3 Impactbysizeofbusiness164.4 Regionaldistributionofwelfareandmarginlosses174.5 Indicativeemploymentlosses194.6 Environmentalimpact215. Assessmentagainsttheprinciplesoftaxpolicy236. Conclusionsandkeyfindings25Appendix 1: Modellingapproachandmethodology27Appendix 2: Sensitivityanalysis37OXFORDECONOMICSEXECUTIVESUMMARYBACKGROUNDCONTEXTANDSTUDYMOTIVATIONOn27July2020,HMTreasury(HMT)announcedacallforevidencearoundtheissueofabusinessratesreview.1ContainedwithinthisdocumentwasaconsiderationofalternativetaxbasesthatcouldraiserevenuefortheExchequertocompensateforanyshortfallthatmightbecreatedbybusinessratesreform.Thetwooptionsspecifiedwereacapitalvaluestaxpayablebythepropertyownerandanonlinesalestax(OST).ThedocumentinvitedbusinessestorespondtotheprospectofanOST.Inthiscontext,AmazonhavecommissionedOxfordEconomicstoproduceanindependentquantitativeassessmentoftheeconomicimplicationsoftheintroductionofsuchataxintheUK.Beyondtheaggregateimplicationsforfirms,consumersandgovernmentrevenuewehavealsoassessedthepotentialenvironmental,distributional,andregionalconsequencesofanOST.ASSUMPTIONSThecallforevidencedocumentprovidednoguidanceonthestructureofanyOSTbeyondsayingitwouldbeleviedononlinesalestoUK-basedcustomersandfocusedon,salesindirectcompetitionwiththosecarriedoutthroughphysicalpremises,2ForthepurposeofthisstudywehavemadethefollowingassumptionswithregardtothescaleandscopeoftheOST. Thetaxwouldbeimposedataflatadvaloremrateof2%. Thetaxwouldapplytoallretailsales(excludingautomotiveandfuel)andtoaselectionofB2Cservices:foodtakeaway,travelandaccommodation.Thetaxisintroducedin2022duringwhichperiodsocialdistancingpoliciesnolongerapply.Themodellingresultspresentedherearenaturallydependentontheseassumptions.DetailedresultsfromsensitivityanalysisaroundtheseassumptionscanbefoundinAppendix2ofthisdocument.KEYTERMSUSEDINTHISREPORT Theeconomicanalysissetoutinthisreportmeasurestheimpactonconsumersintermsofwelfareloss.Forconsumers,welfarefrommakingapurchaseismeasuredasthedifferencebetweenthemaximumamounttheconsumeriswillingtopayforthegoodorserviceandthepricethatisactuallypaid.