IMF-澳大利亚：精选问题（英）-2024.1.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/12AUSTRA1.IASelectedissuesJanuary2024ThisSelectedIssuespaperonAustraliawaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember6,2023.CopiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publicatiousimf.orgWeb:InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.©2024InternationalMonetaryFundINTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDAUSTRA1.IASE1.ECTEDISSUESDecember4z2023ApprovedByAsiaandPacificDepartmentPreparedByAbdullahAlnasser,PragyanDeb,andNourTawk(allAPD).CONTENTSMACROECONOMICIMPACTOFMIGRATION2A. RecentTrendsinMigration2B. MigrationinAustraliainanInternationalContext4C. MigrantCharacteristicsand1.aborMarketOutcomes5D. ImpactofMigration7E. Conclusion15HGURES1. EffectSofMigrationInflowShocksonOutputand1.abourOutcomes132. EffectsofMigrationInflowShocksonInflationandHousingPrices14References20ANNEX3. EffectsofMigrationShocksonSelectedMacroeconomicOutcomes-RobustnessChecks16MACROECONOMICIMPACTOFMIGRATIONPreparedbyAbdullahAlnasser,PragyanDeb,NourTawk(allAPD),WethanktheAustralianauthoritiesfortheirvaluablecommentsandsuggestions.MigrationinAustraliahashistoricallybeenasignificantsourceofpopulationgrowth,withathirdofthepopulationbornoverseas.Migrationissettobecomeevenmoreimportantasthepopulationnaturalgrowthratedeclines.AustraliaattractssomeofthebesteducatedmigrantstoOECDcountrieswhoaremostlyskilledworkersandstudents,Withhighlaborforceparticipationratesandlowunemployment.DisentanglingmacroeconomiceffectsofmigrationfromdriversOfmigrationischallenging,butwithinAustralia,migrationsurgeshavehistoricallybeenassociatedwithhighergrowthandfavorablelabormarketoutcomes,withnegligiblepricepressuresexceptinthehousingmarket.Cross-countryanalysisusinginstrumentalvariablesconfirmsapositiveimpactofmigrationonmacroeconomicoutcomes-output,employment,andproductivity-withoutsignificantinflationaryimpact.Whilehousingaffordabilityisimpactedatthemargin,thiscouldrepresentstructuralsupplyshortagesandwouldbebestaddressedbyboostingsupply.A. RecentTrendsinMigration1. Australiahasapopulationof26million,withcloseto90percentlivinginahandfulofurbanareasaroundtheeasternandsouthernseaboards.Averagepopulationdensityisthereforeoneofthelowestintheworld,at3.5personspersquarekilometergiventhesemi-aridanddesertgeographyofmuchoftheinteriorofthecountry.Themedianageofthepopulationis37.5yearswithahighlifeexpectancyofcloseto84years(theworld,stenthhighestin20231.ifeEXDectanCybyCoUmryandintheWorId(2023)-WOridOmeter(WOrldOmeterS.info).Thesexratioisroughlybalancedat0.99malesperfemaleandtheoldagedependencyratio-numberofindividualsaged65andoverper100peopleofworkingage(20to64)stoodat30,lowerthantheOECDaverageof33,buthasbeenincreasingfastreflectingAustralia'sincreasinglifeexpectancyanddecreasingfertilityrate(seebelow).2. OverseasmigrationhashistoricallyplayedanimportantroleinAustralia.Ithasbeenasignificantsourceofpopulationgrowth,withvariabilityovertimeduetochangingdomesticandglobalfactors.WhileseverallargeincreaseswererecordedbeforetheglobalfinancialcrisisandintheyearsbeforetheCOVID-19pandemic,migrantsinflowssurgedinthelastyearandahalf.Roughlyathirdofthepopulationaged15yearsandoverisbornoverseas,with23percentarrivingbefore2010,whiletherestrepresentsmorerecentmigration.3. Netoverseasmigrationissettoplayanevenlargerrolegoingforwardastherateofnaturalincreasediminishes.Afterpeakingat3.55babiesperwomanin1961,Australiantotalfertilityrate(TFR)hasfallencontinuously,NetOverseasMigration(Numberofpeoplet,000)ScAR-"Netoverseasmigrationzeroinereaching1.66in2020-21,wellbelowthereplacementrateof2.1(therateneededforagenerationtoreplaceitself).Asaresult,overthelastdecade,netoverseasmigration'scontributionstoAustralia'spopulationgrowthincreasedtoroughly60percent.Afterstallingduringthepandemic,whichresultedinthefirstrecordedquarterlypopulationdeclineinAustralia'spopulation,migrationflowsreturnedquicklyafterbordersre-openedin2022.Netoverseasmigrationwas152,000peopleintheMarch2023quarterand454,000peopleovertheyeartoMarch2023,whichdrovemostoftheannualpopulationgrowthandwasthelargestnetinflowofmigrantsonrecord,withpotentiallyimportantmacroeconomiceffects.4. Recenttrendsinmigrationweredrivenbyhigherarrivals,particularlystudentsfromIndiaandChina.Therewasasharpincreaseinmigrantarrivalsin2022andinthefirsthalfof2023,whiledeparturesremainedsubdued,inlargepartaconsequenceoffewertemporarymigrantshavingarrivedduringthepandemic.Thelargestshareofnewmigrantswerestudents,ashashistoricallybeenthecase,followedbyskilledpermanentandp"Pl,l,ionGrozlmdCCneESl岫wlllltemporarymigrants.Thenumberofworkingholidaymakerarrivals-aspecialvisathatletspeople18to30yearsold(35yearsforsomecountries)haveanextendedholidayinAustraliawiththeabi