IMF-脆弱的线索：撒哈拉以南非洲的排斥与冲突（英）-2024.1.docx

<RV'INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDFrayingThreads:ExclusionandConflictinSub-SaharanAfricaHanyAbdel-1.atif5MahmoudEl-GamalWP/24/4IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2024JANWP/24/4©2024InternationalMonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperAfricanDepartmentFrayingThreads:ExclusionandConflictinSub-SaharanAfricaPreparedbyHanyAbdel-1.atif,MahmoudEl-Gamal*AuthorizedfordistributionbyVitaliyKramarenkoJanuary2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Thisstudyinvestigatesthefactorsleadingtoexclusionandtheirdetrimentalimpactsinsub-SaharanAfrica(SSA).Itemploystwo-levelsofanalysis:amacro-levelestimationoftheinfluenceofexclusionandmarginalizationonviolentconflict,andamicro-levelinvestigationidentifyingthetriggersofexclusionsentiments.Weconstructstatisticalsummariesfrommultiplemeasuresofexclusion,producinganoverallexclusionindexaswellassocial,economic,andpoliticalexclusionsub-indices.OurresultsshowtheimportanceofmitigatingexclusionandmarginalizationwithinSSAnations,andpinpointthemosteffectivepolicyleversthatgovernmentsmayusetominimizedestabilizingfeelingsofexclusion.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Abdel-1.atif,H.,&El-Gamal1M.(2024).FrayingThreads:ExclusionandConflictinSub-SaharanAfrica(IMFWorkingPaperNo.24/4).InternationalMonetaryFund.JE1.ClassificationNumbers:D74,D63,055,015,P48Keywords:Sub-SaharanAfrica;Conflict;Socialexclusion;Politicalexclusion;EconomicexclusionAuthor'sE-MailAddress:habdel-latifimf.ora:elaamalrice.eduImfworkingpapersFrayingThreads:ExclusionandConflictinSub-SaharanAfricaWORKINGPAPERSFrayingThreads:ExclusionandConflcitinSub-SaharanAfricaHanyAbdel-1.atif5MahmoudEl-Gamal1TheauthorswouldliketothankDamienCapelle1AntonioDavid,1.ucEyraud1GlenKwende1NicolaPierri1SaadNoorQuayyum1andAlunThomas,forhelpfulcommentsonearlierdraftsofthispaper.INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDContents1 Introduction52 ConflictinSub-SaharanAfrica:AContext73 ExclusionandConflictinThe1.iterature114 ANewExclusionIndex135 DataandMethodology186 EmpiricalResults216.1 TheEffectsofExclusiononConflict216.2 TheMainDriversofExclusion267 Conclusion29AppendixA32FrayingThreads:ExclusionandConflictinSub-SaharanAfricaHanyAbdel-1.atifa*,MahmoudEl-GamalbaIntemationaIMonetaryFundbRiceUniversity1. IntroductionSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA)isaregionthatsuffersfromincessantconflictsandpersistentunderdevelopment.Animportantfactorincausingtheseconflictsandunderdevelopmentisexclusion.Wefollowthecommondefinitionofexclusionasaconditionorprocesstlroughwhichcertainindividualsorgroupsaresystematicallydeniedaccesstorights,opportunities,orresources,whichmaybeavailabletoothersegmentsofthepopulation.1Perceptionsofexclusionmaybemagnifiedbyastate'sfailuretoprovidebasicpublicservicesacrossdisparateregionssufficientlyand/orequitably.Unequalaccesstocleanwater,food,healthcare,education,andeconomicopportunitiescanmagnifyfeelingsofexclusionamongmarginalizedpopulations.Theseperceptionsofexclusion,inturn,mayleadtosocialstrifethatdisruptsanation'sgrowthefforts.ThisconsiderationisparticularlyimportantforSSA,becauseeconomicdevelopmentintheregionhasbeenconsistentlyderailedbypersistentconflicts.Theseconflictswereinpartinheritedfromtheregion'scolonialpast,buttheyremainfueledbyethnic,religiouszandtribaldifferencesthathavemagnifiedproblemsforpost-colonialnationstates.Whetherornotperceptionsofexclusionareindeedjustified-inotherwords,whetherornottheyareresultsofintentionallydiscriminatorypolicies-theyincreasethefrequencyandintensityofconflictsthathaveadverseeffectsoneconomicperformance.Therefore,ouranalysesarefocusedonperceptionsofexclusionandtheircorrelatesatthemacro-andmicro-levels,withoutdelvingdeeplyintopoliticalandsocialanalysisoftherealityorcausesofdiscriminatorypolicies.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.Correspondingauthor:habdel-latifimf.orgForexample.UnitedNations(2016)definessocialexclusionas“astateinwhichindividualsareunabletoparticipatefullyineconomic,social,politicalandculturallife,alongwiththeprocessleadingtoandmaintainingsuchastate,z.WorldBank(2013)highlightsthedynamicnatureofexclusionanditsroleinhinderingmeaningfulparticipationinsociety.ThemeasuresofexclusionthatweconstructinthispaperwillbeshowntocorrelatesignificantlywithclassificationofsomeSSAcountriesintothecategoryofFragileandConflict-affectedStates(FCS).TheWorldBank2023listoffragileandconflicta*cctcdstatesincludesthefollowing17sub-SaharanAfricancountries:BurkinaFaso,Burundi,Cameroon,CentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,Comoros,Re