世界银行-生活、生计和学习：新冠肺炎大流行对健康影响的全球视角（英）-2024.3_市场营销策划_2.docx

PaUO1.nnValnsoosQ.2-qndPolicyResearchWorkingPaper10728PZ'OfnValnsoosQ.2-qnd1.ives,1.ivelihoods,and1.earningAGlobalPerspectiveontheWell-BeingImpactsoftheCOVID-19PandemicBenoitDecerfJedFriedwanArthurMeadesStevenPenningNishantYonan解/worldBankgroupDevelopmentResearchGroupDevelopmentDataGroupMarch2024()ReproducibleResearchRepositoryIAverifiedreproducilableathttp:/reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefordirectaccess.PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10728Abstract,hisstudycomparesthemagnitudeofnationallevellossesthattheCOVID-19pandemicinflictedacrossthreecriticaldimensions：lossoflife,lossofincome,andlossofarcexpressedinyearsoflifelost,whilethoseofincomelossesandschoolclosuresarcexpressedinadditionalyearsspentinpoverty(asmeasuredbynationalpovcrtlines),eithercurrentlyorinthefuture.While2020-21witnessedaglobaldropinlifeexpectancyandthelargestone-yearincreaseinglobalpoverty,inmanydecades,widespreadschoolclosuresmaycausealmosttwiceaslargeanincreaseinfuturepoverty.,ITeestimatesofWeII-beinglossfortheaverageglobalcitizenincludealossofalmostthreeweeksoflife(19days),anadditionaltw。andhalfweeksspentinpovertyin2020and2021(17days),andthepossibilityofanadditionalmonthoflifeinpovertyinthefutureduetoschoolclosures(31days).Well-beinglossesarenotequitablydistributedacrosscountries.Thetypicalhigh-in-comccountrjrsufferedmoretotalyearsoflifelostthanadditionalyearsinpovertjr,whiletheoppositeholdsforthetrpicallow-ormiddle-incomecountry.AggregatingtotallossesrequiresthevaluationofayearoflifelostViS-IViSanadditionalyearspentinpoverty.Ifayearoflifelostisvaluedatfiveorfeweradditionalyearsspentinpoverty,low-incomecountriessufferedgreatertotalwell-beinglossthanhigh-incomecountries.Forawiderangeofvaluations,thegreatestwell-beinglossesfellonupper-middle-incomecountriesandcountriesinthe1.atinmericaregion,l'hissetofcountriessufferedthelargestmortalitycostsaswellaslargelossesinlearningandsharpincreasesinpoverty.,hispaperisaproductoftheDevelopmentResearchGroupandtheDevelopmentDataGroup,DevelopmentEconomics.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicjrResearchWorkingPapersarealsoPOStedwww.woddbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatbdcccrfworldbank.org.Averifiedrcproducibilitathttp:/rcproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefordirectaccess.77vPoicf'ResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesHKfindingojnfork.inprogresstoencouragetbeexdwgeofideasaboutdexloprnentissues.An"砥M'加oftheseriesisto妒1m,findingoutquickly,evnifthepresentationsanksfthanfu!fypolished.Thef>a)t,rscanythenawtsoftbeauthorsandshouldbecited(ccorditty.Thefinding,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisp(rareentirrlyt!wseoftbrauthors.TheydonotnectssarilyrepresentIbet,ien>softheInternationa/BankforRerofislnictionandDevtloptnent/WorldBankanditsaffiliated。喏WMMZ/Ww,OrtbQSeoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldIiankorthe>emmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbyrheResearchSupportTeam1.ives,1.ivelihoods,and1.earning:AGlobalPerspectiveontheWell-BeingImpactsoftheCOVID-19Pandemic1BenoitDecerf,JedFriedman,ArthurMendes,StevenPennings,NishantYonzanWethankAartKraayandDeonFilmerforhelpfulcomments,aswellasGuidoDamonteandMarikaVerulashviliforexcellentresearchassistance.ThisworkwassupportedbythewCovid-19zlives,livelihoodsandlearning'*RSBgrantfromtheWorldBank.Wearegratefultotheaudienceatthe2023IPA/GRP1.methodsconferenceandtheInstituteofSocialScienceattheUniversityofTokyoforprovidinginsightfulcomments.NishantYonzangratefullyacknowledgesfinancialsupportfromtheUKGovernmentthroughtheDataandEvidenceforTacklingExtremePoverty(DEEP)ResearchProgram.Allerrorsremainourown.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedinanymannertotheWorldBank,toitsaffiliatedorganizations,ortomembersofitsBoardofExecutiveDirectorsorthecountriestheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispaperandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.AllauthorsareaffiliatedtotheWorldBank.Correspondingauthor:bdecerfwOrIdbank.orJE1.codes:D63zI15z131,32l015Keywords:Covidzwelfare,poverty,mortality,learning1. IntroductionTheCOVID-19pandemiccausednotonlydramaticincreasesinmortalityinthetwoyearsfollowingthedisease,semergence,butalsoseveredeclinesinincomeandsignificantinterruptionsinstudentlearning.Virtuallyallcountriessufferedlossesinthesedimensions,albeittovaryingdegreesdeterminedinpartbyinitialcountryconditions,post-outbreakpolicychoices,andthebehavioralresponsestosuchpolicies.Apotentialtrade-offbetweenlivesandlivelihoodswasrecognizedearlyinthepandemicperiodasvariouspapersinvestigatedtheeconomicconsequencesofCOVID-19controlpolicies(1.oayzaandPennings2020;Decerfetal.2021;Maetal.2022,Feindounoetal.2023).Thispapermeasures,throughaunifiedframework,theglobaldistributionofnetimpactsinducedbyt