【消费洞察分析报告】麦肯锡-中国消费：新时代的开始（英）-6页.docx

McKinsey&CompanyNovember2023ChinaBriefChinaConsumption:StartofaNewEraDanielZipser,Leader,McKinseyAsiaConsumer&RetailPracticeAfteranencouragingstartinthefirstquarterofthisyear,second-quarterandthird-quarterconsumptiondataconfirmswhatmanyintheindustryhavealreadycometoaccept:theeraofdouble-digitgrowthinChina,sretailsectorisover.whencomparedtothealreadysubduedthirdquarterofthepandemic-impacted2022.Despiteapromising7.5percentuptickinretailsalesinOctober,therearecurrentlyfewindicationsthatChinawillseeafundamentalreversalinthistrend.(Exhibit1)Third-quarterretailsalesofgoodsgrewbyonly3percent,withtherecentDoubleElevenshoppingfestivalekingoutamere2percentincreaseoverthepreviousyear.Thisslowdownisevidentacrossvariouscategories,includingcosmetics(3percent),clothing(4percent),andappliances(0.8percent),Exhibit1ChinamacroeconomicandconsumptionindicatorsMacroeconomic indicatorsYoY growth in percent1GrowthofkeyconsumerproductcategoriesYoYgrowthinpercent1vs. 2022vs.2022Q32YTD3Q32YTD35.2%5.5%18.7%126.7%5.3%6.8%10.6%-0.6%6.7%Allvehicles37%EVs1.Volumeforautos(CATARC),valueforothercategories2. Q3growthdataiscalculatedbasedonmonthlyvaluedata,exceptforGDPgrowthwhichisdirectlyreleasedbyNBS3. January-September2023Source:NBS,CATARC,CAACDespiteinitialsignsofrecoveryinconsumersentimentearlierintheyear,ithassinceplateaued,hoveringarounditsall-timelowsinceApril.Factorscontributingtothisincludeasignificantdropinresidentialpropertytransactionsapastpillarofwealthcreationalongsidedecliningexportsandconcernsaboutgeopoliticaltensions.(Exhibit2)Residential property transactions (sqm) Index 2019=100, adjusted for seasonality (3-month moving average)Exhibit2ResidentialpropertytransactionsandconsumerconfidenceConsumerconfidenceindex(CCI)1Monthly1.Theindex/SUb-indexrangesbetween0and200.100isthemedian,indicatingthatconsumerconfidenceisneutral.0indicatesextremepessimism;200reflectsextremeoptimismSource:NBSDespitea5percentsurveyedunemploymentrateinurbanareasandacontinued6percentannualincreaseindisposableincomes,includingin2023,consumersremaincautiousaboutspending,especiallyonproperties.Householdsavingsratesarestillsignificantlyhigherthanpre-COVIDlevels(34percentversus30percent),withlimitedsignsyetoftheadditionalRMB53trillioninsavingsaccumulatedsince2020beingfunneledintoconsumption.ThisequatestoanextraRMB38,000inthebankaccountsofeachconsumer,awaitingexpenditure.Anotableexceptionistheservicesector,particularlyintravelandentertainment.Afteryearsofrestrictedmobility,there'srenewedenthusiasmfortravelandsocializinginrestaurantsandbars(bothsectorstoppedthelistintermsofrateofgrowthinMcKinsey,smostrecentConsumerWiselsurveyofChineseconsumers).Foodservicesectorgrowth-arobust19percentyear-to-dateand14percentinQ3over2022ispartlyduetoalowercomparativebasefrompreviousyearsandconsumers*increasedspendingondiningandtravel.Domestictravelhasreboundedtosurpass2019levels,andtraveltoHongKong,Taiwan,andMacaoisapproachingpre-pandemicfigures(83percentof2019levelsinSeptember).Whileinternationaltravelremainsataroundhalfof2019levels,thisisprimarilyattributedtovisarestrictionsandhighflightprices.Theshiftfromproducttoserviceconsumptionisexpectedtocontinueinto2024.(Exhibit3)Exhibit3GrowthinairtravelPre-COVID-19level=100,month-by-monthcomparisonDomestic (excl. HK/TW/MC)Hong Kong/Taiwan/MacauInternationalSource： CAACDoubleElevenDoubleEleven,theworld,slargestshoppingfestival,warrantscloserexamination.Thisyear,whilesalesinchedupbyjust2percentoverlastyear,itnonethelessreachedastaggeringRMB1.1trillioninGMVacrossallplatforms,surpassingtheannualconsumptionofsomeentireeconomies.TheeventssheerscaleoffersvaluableinsightsintoChineseconsumerbehavior:The2percentgrowthoveranalreadyflat2022wasdrivenbydiscountsandpromotions,withtheaveragesellingprice(ASP)decliningformajorbrandscomparedtolastyear.Categoriesexperiencinggrowthareconsistentwithtrendsobservedthroughouttheyear,suchasfootwear,foodandbeverage,andsportsandoutdoor.Appliancesandforthefirsttimebeautyandpersonalcarehaveseennotabledeclinescomparedtolastyear.Livestreamingcontinuesitsupwardtrajectory.Traditionale-commerceSlightlydeclinedduringDoubleEleven,whileIivestreamingsurgedbyapproximately20percent,contributingto20percentofthetotalGMV.Thisgrowth,amplifiedbystrongplatformsupport,reflectsongoingtrendsin2023.Majorplatformshaveheavilyinvestedintrafficsupportandproductsubsidies,withKuaishoualoneprovidingRMB2billioninproductsubsidiesand18billionintrafficsupport.Over60percentofthetop58Tmall/TaobaoIivestreamingchannels,eachwithoverRMB100millioninGMV,areoperatedbybrandsratherthanKOLs.Thisunderscoreshow,morethanever,brandsareembracingIivestreamingasapowerfulshoppingchannel.Weanticipatefurtherinnovationinthisarea,withbrandsincreasinglyfocusingoncontentoverdiscount-drivenstrategiesandexploringwaystoleveragetheirphysicalretailinfrastructure.Premiumbrandscontin