世界银行-萨赫勒地区适应性社会保护系统的压力测试（英）-2023.10..docx

STRESSTESTINGADAPTIVESOCIALPROTECTIONSYSTEMSINTHESAHELByAlineCoudouel,SilviaFuselliandMiraSaidiSaheladaptiveSOCIALPROTECTIONPROGRAMABOUTTHESAHELADAPTIVESOCIALPROTECTIONTRUSTFUNDTheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP)isfundedbyamulti-donortrustfund(MDTF)withcontributionsfromtheDenmarkRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairs;theAgenceFranaisedeDdveloppement(AFD);theGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ);andtheUnitedKingdomForeign,Commonwealth,andDevelopmentOffice(FCDO).ItsobjectiveistosupportsixSahelianCountries-BurkinaFaso1Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalinbuildingASPsystemsprimarilytohelpvulnerablehouseholdsadapttotheimpactsofclimatechangebutalsotoothercovariateshocks.TheSASPPismanagedbytheSocialProtectionandJobsunitoftheWest-CentralAfricaregionaldepartmentoftheWorldBank.MHNtSTftV 0 FMEICN AFFAIR! O* DEMMARKDbankgroupThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.TABLEOFCONTENTSForeword4Acknowledgements5Authors6ExecutiveSummary7OverallAssessment10ArrangementsandPartnerships12DataandInformationSystems13ProgramsandDeliverySystems14Finance15Abbreviations161.istOfTabIes171.istOfFigures17ListofBoxes181. Introduction191 .1TheSahel:RegionattheIntersectionofOverlappingShks1912 AdaptiveSocialProtection2113 Methodology252. ProgressontheFourBuildingBlocksforASP:AMixedPicture2721 Overview2722 InstitutionalArrangementsandPartnerships:KeyFindings2823 DataandInformationSystems:KeyFindings3424 ProgramsandDeliverySystems:KeyFindings4225 Finance:KeyFindings503. ConclusionsandRecommendations56AppendixA:SocialProtectionStressTestToolanditsApplicationintheSahel62References72EndNotes75FOREWORDTheStressTestingAdaptiveSocialProtectionSystemsintheSahelreportexaminestheexistingsocialprotectionsystemsintheSahelandidentifieselementsthatneedstrengtheningtoaddresstheneedsintheregion.TheworkforthisreportbeganduringtheCOVID-19pandemic,whichtestedthecapacityoftheadaptivesocialprotectionsystemsintheSahelcountries.Theeconomicconsequencesofthepandemicwereextensive,particularlyforvulnerableandpoorhouseholdsintheSahel1andreversedyearsofpovertyreductionefforts.WhiletheSahelcountriesareshowingsignsofenomicrecoveryfromthepandemic,theycontinuetofaceamultitudeofongoingcrises,includingglobalchallenges,suchastheinflationandeconomicfalloutfromthewarinUkraine,andlocalizedshockslinkedtoinsecurityandworseningclimatetheSahelrecentlyexperiencedveryseveredroughtsandfoodinsecurity,alongsidemorefrequentandsevereflooding.Theseincreasinglychallengingcontextscallforeffectiveadaptivesialprotection(ASP)toolsandstrategies.ASPisacriticaltooltoreachtheWorldBank'sgoalofaworldfreeofpovertyonalivableplanet.Indeed,tofaceworseningclimatechange,increasinglyfrequentclimate-relatedshocks,andeconomicshocksfromanevermoreglobalizedworld,itisessentialtohavesystemsinplacethatcanbuildtheresilienceofthepoorestandmostvulnerablehouseholdsaheadofshocks,aswellasprotectthem,theirproductiveinvestments,andtheirhumancapitalfromthenegativeimpactsofshocks.Inrecentyears,theSahelcountries,withthesupportoftheWorldBankandtheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP),havebeguntoinvestinadaptivesocialprotectionsystems.Governmentshaveestablishednationalsafetynetprograms,whichofferregularsupporttosomeofthepoorestsegmentsofthepopulation.ASPsystemsweredesignedfortheseprogramstoscaleup,incoordinationwithhumanitarianpartners,torespondtoshockssuchasfoodinsecurityandpandemics.Whiletheirreachandscaleremainlimited,theirsuccessesarenottobeminimized,andsomesuccessfulelementshaveinspiredothercountriesinAfricaandbeyond.ThisreportdrawslessonsfromtheASPtrajectoryintheSahel.Itusesthestresstestmethodology,designedbytheWorldBank,toassesstheabilityofsocialprotectionsystemstorespondtoshocks.ThereportprovidesarichoverviewoftheexistingsystemsintheSahelalongthefourbuildingblocksofASP.First,itexaminestheinstitutionalarrangementsforASPandshockresponseintheregion,andexploreslinkagesacrossgovernmentagenciesandexternalpartners,whichplayanimportantroleinr