麦肯锡-一条经济实惠、可靠、有竞争力的净零之路（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_do.docx

McKinsey&CompanyAnaffordable,reliable,competitivepathtonetzeroAuthorsMekalaKrishnanHumayunTaiDanielPacthodSvenSmitTomasNaucIerBlakeHoughtonJesseNoffsingerDirkSimon*Editor'BenjaminPlotinskyNovember2023ContentsAtaglance2Therehasbeenmeaningfulmomentumtowardnetzero4Nevertheless,theworldisnotontracktoreachnetzeroby20505Apoorlyexecutedtransitioncouldcompromiseaffordability,reliability,andcompetitivenessandslowprogresstowardnetzero9Awell-managedtransitionwouldfollowsevenprinciples14Anillustrationshowshowfollowingthoseprinciplescouldacceleratetheworld'scurrenttrajectory36Embracingachangeofmindsetcanhelptheworldmoveclosertoitsnet-zerogoals41Cover image: Sam Falner All interior images: Getty ImagesCopyright © 2023McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Confidential and proprietary. Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company ISStrictIyprohibited.Technicalappendix43Acknowledgments46Ataglance-Thoughtherehasbeenmeaningfulmomentum,theworldisnotontracktoachievethegoalenshrinedintheParisAgreementoflimitingwarmingtowellbelow2orideally1.5.Tomeetthatgoal,countriesandcompanieshavecommittedtoreachingnet-zeroemissionsofCO2andreducingemissionsofothergreenhousegases.Buttherehasnotbeenenoughprogress.Theshareofprimaryenergyproducedbyrenewablesources,forexample,hasrisenslowly,from8percentin2010to12percentin2021.Ifemissionsstayontheircurrenttrajectory,estimatesfromvarioussourcessuggest,netzerowouldnotarriveevenbytheendofthecentury.- Asuccessfulnet-zerotransitionwillrequireachievingnotoneobjectivebutfourinterdependentones:emissionsreduction,affordability,reliability,andindustrialcompetitiveness.Apoorlyexecutedtransitioncouldmakeenergy,materials,andotherproductslessaffordable,compromisingeconomicempowerment.Itcouldalsomakethesupplyofenergyandmaterialslesssecureandresilient,anditcouldrendersomecountriesandcompanieslesscompetitive.Ifthathappened,progresstowardnetzeroitselfcouldstall.- Ourresearchhasfoundpracticalwaystoaddressthoseobjectivessimultaneously.Sevenprinciplescanhelpstakeholderssuccessfullynavigatethenextphaseofthetransition.Forexample,deployinglower-costsolutionsanddrivingdownthecostofmoreexpensiveonescouldbolsteraffordability.Managingexistingandemergingenergysystemsinparallelcouldmakeaccesstoenergymorereliable.Seekingopportunitiesbyusingcomparativeadvantageasaguidecouldhelpcountriesbolstertheircompetitiveness.- Followingthoseprinciplescouldsubstantiallyimprovetheworld'scurrenttrajectory.Weexaminedthepotentialimplicationsofapplyingtwoprinciples:deployingmorelower-costsolutionsandusingR&Dandothermeasurestodoubletheexpectedrateofcostdeclines.OurillustrativeanalysesfoundthatdoingsocouldsubstantiallyimprovethecurrenttrajectoryofemissionsandhelplimitwarmingtowhattheParisAgreementenvisions.Capitalspendingonlow-emissionstechnologieswouldpotentiallybeoneandahalftotwotimesaslargeasitisnowasopposedtoaboutthreetimes,asmightbethecaseifthetwoprincipleswereappliedlessextensively.- Embracingachangeofmindsetcanhelptheworldmoveclosertonetzero,inadditiontoglobalcommitmentstoreachnetzerointhefuture,stakeholdersshouldcommittomakingmoreandmoreprogresseveryyearanddoingsoinawaythataddressesallfourobjectives.IntroductionToday,theworldisundertakingthenet-zerotransition,anambitiousefforttoreachnet-zeroemissionsofCO2andreduceemissionsofothergreenhousegases(GHGs).ThegoalofthetransitionisoutlinedintheParisAgreementadoptedattheUnitedNationsin2015：tolimitglobalwarmingabovepreindustriallevelstowellbelow2.0oC,andideallyto1.5.Doingsowouldreducetheoddsofinitiatingthemostcatastrophicimpactsofclimatechange. See Global worming of 1.5X, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2018.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),limitingwarmingto1.50CwouldrequirereducingGHGemissionsby43percentbetween2019and2030andcuttingnetemissionsofCO2tozerobyaround2050. Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change, IPCC, 2022.,See Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake: Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, September 2023.ButtheefforttomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreementisnotcurrentlyontrack,asarecentreportfromtheUnitedNationsshows?Manypublicandprivateactors,aspiringtomeetthosegoals,areworkingtousherinthetransition'snextphase,oneinwhichmorecapitalflowstowardthetransitionandthedeploymentofnecessarytechnologiesexpandssubstantially.Often,thetransitionisenvisionedasasinglegreatchallenge:reducingemissionsfromenergy,materials,andland-useandothersystems.Inpractice,itconsistsoffourobjectives:emissionsreduction,affordability,reliability,andindustrialcompetitiveness. Affordability is a particularly important priority. Recent research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has found that 4.7 billion people are not yet economically empoweredthat is, they cannot meet essential needs and begin to achieve financial security. For