亚开行-亚洲发展展望（ADO）2023年12月：经济增长加快价格压力缓解（英）-2023.12_市.docx

HIGHLIGHTS Developing Asia's outlook remains solid despite global challenges. The 2023 growth forecast is revised up from Asian Development Outlook September2023,s projection, to 4.9% from 4.7%, on robust domestic demand. The 2024 forecast is maintained at 4.8%. East Asia,s growth forecast for 2023 is revised up to 4.7% on higher-than- e×pected third quarter growth in the People,s Republic of China. The forecast for 2024 is maintained at 4.2%. South Asia's projection is revised up to 5.7% for 2023, driven by Stronger- than-expected growth in India, and is unchanged at 6.0% for 2024. Growth forecasts for Southeast Asia are revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7% for 2024, mainly on weak external demand. The Caucasus and Central Asia's 2023 outlook has improved, with growth now forecast at 4.8% primarily on expecutions Offastergrowth in Kazakhstan. The 2024 forecast is revised down slightly to 4.6%. The Pacific's growth projections are unchanged at 3.5% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, on the continued recovery of international tourism and the resumption of public infrastructure projects. Developing Asia,s inflation is forecast to decline from 4.4% last year to a downward-adjusted 3.5% this year, before rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024. Downside risks are mainly associated with higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, which could trigger financial instability. Possible supply disruptions from El Ninoand the Russian invasion of Ukraine could renew energy and food security challenges, and rekindle inflation.ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKDECEMBER2023GROWTHUPBEAT5PRICEPRESSURESEASINGRecentDevelopmentsDevelopingAsia'sgrowthhasbeenupbeatthisyeardespitepersistentheadwinds.Healthydomesticdemand,strongremittances,andrecoveringtourismareunderpinningeconomicactivity,whichcontinuedtoexpandevenasinflationmoderated.Thesedrivers。仟Setthedragfromslowerglobalgrowthandthelaggedeffectsofmonetarypolicytightening,andtheyareexpectedtocontinuefosteringgrowthintheregionnextyear.Variousfactorsweighontheoutlook,however,includinghigher-for-longerglobalinterestrates,propertymarketweaknessinthePeople,sRepublicofChina(PRC),andsofterdemandfromadvancedeconomies.Theeconomicperformanceinthemajoradvancedeconomieshasdiverged,andoilpricesremainvolatile.ThelikelihoodofasoftlandingintheUnitedStateshasincreased.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheUScontinuedtoexpandinthefirsthalfof2023andsurprisedontheupsideinthethirdquarter(Q3).Growthacceleratedtoaseasonallyadjustedannualizedrate(saar)of5.2%inthequarter,spurredbyarapidincreaseinspendingongoodsandservices(box).Despiteatightlabormarket,headlineinflationcontinuedtodecelerate,slowingto3.2%inOctober,andpersonalconsumptionexpenditureinflationfellto3.0%inthesamemonth.Coreinflation,however,hasdeceleratedmoreslowlyTheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)RegionalEconomicOutlookTaskForceledthepreparationofarevisedoutlookforthisAsianDevelopmentOutlook.ThetaskforceischairedbytheEconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartmentandincludesrepresentativesoftheCentralandWestAsiaDepartment,EastASiaDepartment,PacificDepartment,SouthAsiaDepartment,andSoutheastAsiaDepartment.ADBplaceditsregularassistancetoAfghanistanonholdeffective15August2021.EffectiveIFebruary2021,ADBplacedatemporaryholdonsovereignprojectdisbursementsandnewcontractsinMyanmar.ADRand,at4.0%,isstilldoubletheFederalReserve,s2.0%targetIncontrasttothebuoyantUSeconomy,growthintheeuroarea,whileremainingpositiveintheyeartodate,hasslowed.Growthinthecurrencyunioncontractedby0.4%saarinQ3,depressedbyhighinterestratesandstickyinflation.LeadingindicatorsofeconomicactivitysuggestcontinuedweaknessinQ4acrosstheeuroarea,smajoreconomies.Japan'smodestrecoveryintourismandserviceswasoffsetbysubduedprivateinvestment,causingtheeconomytostagnateinQ3.OilpriceswerevolatileinOctoberfollowingtheonsetofthecurrentconflictintheMiddleEast.TheBrentcrudeoilpriceroseto$94.39/barrelon19Octoberbutfellbelow$80/barrelinthesecondhalfofNovember,asconcernsoverslowingglobaldemandoutweighedtheriskoftheconflictescalating.GrowthindevelopingAsiaacceleratedto5.0%intheyeartodate,buoyedbythePRC'scontinuedpost-pandemicreopeningandhealthydomesticdemandacrosstheregion(Figure1).StrongservicescontinuetobethemaindriverofgrowthinthePRC,offsettingadownturninthepropertysector.Supportedbypolicymeasurestosustainconsumption,industry,andthehousingmarket,growthpickeduptoafaster-than-expected4.9%inQ3.ThePRCeconomyexpandedby5.2%inthefirst3quartersoftheyear,upfrom3.0%forthewholeof2022,despitethedragfromtheproperty-marketcorrection.India'sgrowthalsoaccelerated,to7.1%inthefirst3quartersofthecalendaryear,drivenbystrongindustrialproductionandinvestment.Theboostfrompost-pandemicreopeninginmostSoutheastAsianeconomiesiswaning,andmerchandisegoodsexportsfromhigh-incometechnologyexportersremainssubduedalthoughtheyhavestabilized.Purchasingmanagers,indexes(PMIs)suggestthatmanufacturinginseveraloftheregion,sexport-orientedeconomieswasstillmutedinOctober(TableI).PMIsstayedbelow50theindexthresholdindicatin