规划中非关系的未来：非洲大陆如何受益（英）-南非国际事务研究所-2021.10-34正式版.docx

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1、OccasionalPaperMappingtheFutureofChina-AfricaRelations:HowtheContinentcanBenefitYlKEFU&OVIGWEEGUEGUAfrican perspectivesGlobal insightsSA%SOVTMMRKANlNSlfnZTtWyOFINIBtNAnOHAlAFFAftSJAbstractChinaisAfricaslargesttradingpartner,anddeeperChina-Africaengagementhasthepotentialtotransformthecontinentstrade.

2、TheestablishmentoftheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea(AfCFTA)issettoaddsignificantlytothisevolution,particularlyasmostoftheAfricancountriesthathaveratifiedtheagreementunderpinningthefreetradeareaarealsosignatoriestotheChinese-ledBeltandRoadInitiative.Thispavesthewayforgreaterstrategiccooperationbetwe

3、enAfricaandChinaintheareaoftrade,withmanyinfrastructuredevelopmentprojectsthathavebeencarriedoutundertheauspicesoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeprovidinganimportantfoundationfortradeexpansiononthecontinent.However,todate,China-Africaengagementhasbeenrelativelyadhocanduncoordinated,anditseffectsandbenefits

4、(especiallyfromAfrica,sperspective)difficulttodetermine.ThispaperevaluatesthepotentialforgreatercoordinationbetweentheAfCFTAandtheBeltandRoadInitiativebyexaminingfourcooperationapproaches:(1)the*business-as-usuaorstatusquo,optioninwhichtheChina-Africarelationship(helpedbyChineseFDIflowstoAfrica)will

5、continuetoevolveandtwo-waytradewillincreasebutinanadhocmanner;(2)greatercoordinationbetweentheAfCFTAandBeltandRoadInitiative,involvingthechannellingofChineseFDIintoprioritycountriesandsectorsinAfricaandsupportedbytheestablishmentofeconomiczones;(3)managedeconomicintegrationbetweentheAfCFTAandtheBelt

6、andRoadInitiativeandapreferentialtradeframework,modelledalongthelinesoftheUSAfricanGrowthandOpportunityAct,withsignificantopportunitiesforChineseFDIineconomiczonesinAfrica;(4)afreetradeagreementbetweenChinaandtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea.Eachoftheseoptionshasadvantagesanddrawbacks,whiletheirfe

7、asibilityalsovaries.Drawingonthecomparativeassessment,thepaperofferscertainrecommendationstoAfricanpolicymakersandotherstakeholdersfortakingChina-Africarelationstothenextlevel,withthefreetradeagreementandBeltandRoadInitiativeactingasimportantpillarsinthetwosides*futureengagements.IntroductionIn2018,

8、theDeclarationandActionPlanfortheSeventhForumonChina-AfricaCooperation(FOCAC)madethefirstdirectreferencetotheAfCFTA1whichbecameoperationalon1January2021.ItalsopubliclyannouncedtheclosealignmentoftheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)withtheAfricanUnion(AU)Agenda2063andthedevelopmentstrategiesbyallAfricancoun

9、tries.AsChinaandAUsignedacooperationplanfortheBRIandAUAgenda2063inDecember2020,linkingtheBRIandtheAfCFTAwillbeakeythemeofFOCAC8in2021.Asof30January2021,140countriesand31internationalorganisationshadsignedcooperationdocuments(MemorandaofUnderstanding)withChinaontheBRI,amongwhichwere46Africancountries

10、.Furthermore,36AfricancountrieshavedepositedtheirinstrumentsofratificationofAfCFTAwiththeAUCommission.Ofthe36countries,29arealsosignatoriestotheBRI.Giventhesignificantoverlapinsignatories,bothChinaandAfricangovernmentshaveanincentivetoconsiderhowtoleveragetheirtradelinkagesamongsignatorycountriesand

11、howinfrastructureprojectswilldirectlyenhancetradeconnectivity,thusmakingFOCAC2021animportantplatformforexchangingideasanddiscussingspecificconcernsaswellasflagshipprojectsthatwilllinktheBRIandAfCFTA.BothChinaandAfricangovernmentshaveanincentivetoconsiderhowtoleveragetheirtradelinkagesamongsignatoryc

12、ountriesandhowinfrastructureprojectswilldirectlyenhancetradeconnectivityThereareseveralwaysinwhichtheBRIandAfCFTAcouldbelinkedgoingforward.Inthispaper,weappraisethepotentialoffouroptionsforfutureengagement:a*business-as-usuaor*status-quo,fairlyuncoordinatedbaselineoption;twotypesoftargetedandstructu

13、redapproachestotradecooperation;andafullliberalisationoption,ie,anAfCFTA-ChinaFreeTradeAgreement(FTA).Weuseanadaptedstrengths,weaknesses,opportunitiesandthreats(SWOT)frameworktoexploretheprosandconsofeachoptioninaconsistentmanner.WealsoincorporatetheresultsofagravitymodelofAfrica-Chinatradeaswellasc

14、asestudiesontwosectors-manufacturingandagriculture-toexplaininmoreliteraltermsthepotentialforinnovative,strategictradecooperationandcollaborationbetweenChinaandAfrica.BasedonthisappraisalandinviewoftheupcomingFOCACin20211wethenproviderecommendationsfortheAU,Africangovernments,Africancivilsocietyandt

15、hinktankstomakeoneormorepreferredoptionsareality.Specifically,weurgeallthepartiestotakefulladvantageofthesynergiesbetweentheBRIandAfCFTAinnewandinnovativeways,whilelearningfrompastexperiencesandinteractionswithotherdevelopmentpartners.Cost-benefitanalysisTodate,mostoftheanalysisrelatedtotheimpactoft

16、heBRIonthecontinenthasfocusedontheBRspotentialeffectoninfrastructure.Indeed,asthemainpurposeoftheBRIistostrengthenlinkagesonatranscontinentalscale,thereisnodoubtthatmostoftheprojectsarefocusedonlogisticsandtransportationinfrastructure,includingthebuildingofroads,railways,andmarineandairlinks.AccordingtoYiGang,thegovernorofthePeople,sBankofChina,Chinesefinancialinstitutionshavefunded$440billion-worthofinfrastructureprojectswithintheBRIcountries,m