SARS疫情对某些经济指标的影响.docx

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1、SARS疫情对某些经济指标的影响SARS疫情对某些经济指标的影响2003年SARS疫情对中国部分行业的经济发展产生了肯定的影响，特殊是对部分疫情比较严峻的省市的相关行业所造成的影响是很明显的。经济影响主要分为干脆影响和间接影响，干脆影响涉及到商品零售业、旅游业、综合服务业等，许多方面难以进行定量地评估。现仅就SARA疫情较重的某城市商品零售业、旅游业、综合服务业的影响进行定量评估分析。已知某市从1997年1月-2003年12月的商品零售额、接待海外旅游人数、综合服务收入的统计数据如卜表表IT商品的零售额（单位:亿元）年头17月8月9月10月12月199719981999200020012002

2、200383.079.878.85.186.688.90.386.793.392.590.996.9101.785.87.891.693.494.597.499.5104.102.101.0123.592.2114.093.3101.0103.105.109.109.2109.6111.2121.7131.3105.125.106.6116.0117.6118.121.7118.7120.127.121.8121.9139.3129.122.5124.5135.130.138.7133.7136.8138.129.6133.7137.53133.0133.4142.8141.6142.9147

3、.3159.6162.1153.5155.9163.2159.7158.4145.2124.O144.1157.O162.6171.8180.7173.5176.5表1-2接待海外旅游人数（单位:万人）年头1月2月3月4月5月6月8月9月10月11月12月19971998199920002001200220039.411.316.19.20.318.20.24.24.724.19.418.69.611.15.19.19.517.817.823.321.424.20.15.10.112.917.721.021.020.25.29.329.823.616.511.426.25.27.624.323

4、.027.827.328.32.18.11.526.-420.426.128.928.25.30.28.28.22.220.713.729.23.28.29.27.426.032.231.432.29.22.15.417.123.11.61.782.618.16.220.24.26.521.1-3综合服务业累计数额（单位:亿元）年头2月10月1112月199719981999200020012002200396144194276383466554652747832972Ill169235400459565695805881101111391512383354255416417398669751

5、087123816426337653160071191310381173129614971823184455767088561000114512921435166721636150464281897911421305147916441920241404584741923111412981492168418852218试依据这些历史数据建立预料评估模型，评估2003年SARS疫情给该市商品零售业、旅游业和综合服务业所造成的影响。月份1234年头预料值相对误差预料值相对误差预料值相对误差预料值相对误差199783079.8078.1085.10199891.08160.0162199998110.

6、095696.94840.139285.85820.022193.102.24430.1089106.46790.066195.92180.0281102.21450.0122000113.65270.0824116.9220.0698107.16510.0053112.24350.03242001126.33410.0931128.40260.0085119.72620.0226123.25650.012002140.43040.0213141.01060.0422133.75960.0057135.35010.0146月份5678年头预料值相对误差预料值相对误差预料值相对误差预料值相对误差

7、199786.6088.2090.3086.70199894.00140.006495.34070.008999.46710.021298.64190.00861999104.90410.0136105.48860.0027109.62530.0011108.95520.00222000117.07140.0045116.71660.0109120.8210.0072120.34680.01392001130.650.0372129.13980.0127133.160.0399132.92950.00582002145.80350.021142.88520.0091146.75910.027146.82770.0032月份9101112年头预料值相对误差预料值相对误差预料值相对误差预料值相对误差199793.3092.5090.9096.90199899.17750.0482100.27170.0198103.71770.0269119.6310.03131999110.99680.0127112.63040.0129113.57470.0668126.05870.03992000124.22470.0335126.51240.0101124.36840.0211132.83170.08972001139.02890.