IMF-进口关税和贸易政策不确定性的宏观经济后果（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertainty1.ukasBoerandMalteRiethWP/24/13IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotne

2、cessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2024JANWP/24/132024InternationalMonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperResearchDepartmentTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertaintyPreparedby1.ukasBoerandMalteRieth*AuthorizedfordistributionbyJaewoo1.eeJan

3、uary2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Weestimatethemacroeconomiceffectsofimpor

4、ttariffsandtradepolicyuncertaintyintheUnitedStates,combiningtheory-consistentandnarrativesignrestrictionsinBayesianSVARs.Wefindmostlyadverseconsequencesofprotectionism,inaggregateandacrosssectorsandregions.Tariffshocksaremoreimportantthantradepolicyuncertaintyshocks.Tariffshocksdepresstrade,investme

5、nt,andoutputpersistently.Thegeneralequilibriumimportelasticityis-0.8.Historically,NAFTA/WTOraisedoutputby1-3%fortwentyyears.Undoingthe2018/19measureswouldraiseoutputby4%overthreeyears.Thefindingsimplyhighergainsoftradethanpartialequilibriumorstatictrademodels.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Boer,1.ukas,andMalte

6、Rieth,2024.TheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertainty,IMFWorkingPaper24/13.JE1.ClassificationNumbers:C32,E30,F13,F14Keywords:Tradepolicy;internationaltrade;structuralvectorautoregressions;narrativeidentification;generalequilibrium;UnitedStates.AuthorsE-MailAddress:Iboerimf.

7、org,mriethdiw.deMalteRiethisaffiliatedwithMartin-1.uther-UniversitatHalle-WittenbergandtheGermanInstituteforEconomicResearch(DIWBerlin).TheauthorsaregratefultoThiloAlbers,MichaelBurda,DarioCaldara,AdamJakubik,Jaewoo1.ee,1.ukasMenkhoff,RomanMerga,FabianSeyrich1MartinStuermer11.eopoldZessner-Spitzenbe

8、rg1andseminarparticipantsattheDIWBerlinforhelpfulmments.WORKINGPAPERSTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertaintyPreparedby1.ukasBoerandMalteRieth1 IntroductionTheuncertaintyaboutUStradepolicyspikedaroundandfollowingthe2016presidentialelection.Subsequently,theUSraisedimportta

9、riffssubstantially.Forexample,theaveragerateonChinesegoodshasincreasedfrom3%to21%between2018and2020.Thereturnofprotectionismrenewedtheinterestamongpolicymakersandresearchersworldwideintwoclassicquestionsininternationaleconomics.Whataretheeffectsofimporttariffsinlargeopeneconomies?Whatistheeffectofun

10、certaintyabouttradepolicyinsuchcountries?Twolong-standingstrandsofresearchaddressthesequestionsbyusingmicroeconomicdata,analyzingthetwoquestionsinisolation,andfocusingonselectedtradeepisodes.AmacroeconomicaccountoftheaverageeffectsofbothdimensionsofUStradepolicyovermanytradeeventsislargelymissing.Th

11、ispaperaimsatfillingthegap.WeproddeevidenceontheeffectsofimporttariffsandtradepolicyuncertaintyontheUSeconomyingeneralequilibriumsincethe1960s.Combiningtwotraditionsintheempiricalmacroeconomicliterature,ouridentificationapproachusesboththeoryandnarrativeinformationtodisentangleandestimatetheeffectso

12、ftradepolicylevelanduncertaintyshocks.Wecontributetotheliteratureoninternationaltradealongthreemaindimensions.First,theempiricaltradeliteratureismainlybasedonmicroeconomicdata.Forexample,Fajgelbaumetal.(2019)estimatetheimpactoftradeimpedimentsinpartialequilibrium.Then,theyembedtheseestimatesinastruc

13、turalgeneralequilibriummodel.Thisapproachdeliverssharpidentificationanddetailedinsightsintotheeconomicmechanisms.Buttheaggregateeffectsarebasedonpotentiallystrongbehadoralandparametricassumptionsandreferonlytothelongrunastheyarebasedoncomparativestatics.Wecomplementtheseinsightsbystartingfromtheoppo

14、siteside.WeestimatetheshortrungeneralequilibriumeffectsusingaflexibleempiricalframeworkinformofaBayesianstructuralvectorautoregression(SVAR)withminimalassumptions.Then,weusetheidentifiedshockstodeterminethedisaggregatedimpactsacrossUSsectorsandstates.Thesecondcontributionistoestimatebothdimensionsof

15、UStradepolicy,shiftsintheleveloftariffsandintheuncertaintyaroundthese,inoneencompassingmodel.Bycontrast,mostoftheempiricaltradeliteratureanalyzesthemseparately,treatingeitheroneasorthogonaltotheother.1Thismightbeproblematicbecausetariffchangesandtradepolicyuncertaintyoftengo,Autoretal.(2016)andFajge

16、lbaumandKhandelwal(2022)reviewtheliteratureontheeffectsoftariffchangeshandinhand,astherecentUStradedisputesillustrate.Inaddition,identifyingbothlevelanduncertaintyshiftswithinasinglemodelhastheadvantagethattheimplicationsandimportanceofbothdimensionoftradepolicycanbecomparedconsistently.Thethirdcontributionistocomplementtheexistingestimatesbasedonsingletradeevents,orshortersamples,withevidencefrom6oyearsofquarte