全球发展中心-国际货币基金组织的韧性和可持续性信托：条件如何帮助各国建立韧性（英）-2024.3.docx

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1、CGDCMTFPFOBG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENTTheIMrSResilienceandSustainabilityTrust:HowConditionalityCanHelpCountriesBuildResilienceJOHNHICK1.INAbstractTheIMFsResilienceandSustainabilityTrust(RST)hasbeenoperationalforoverayear,withthefirstseventeencountriesreceivingcommitmentsOffinancialsupport.Butiflendingfromt

2、heRSTistoachieveitsobjectives,theIMFshouldmakeitfitterforpurposebytakingaradicallydifferentapproachinapplyingconditionstotheloans.Thispaperfirstgivesthebackgroundandsummarizestheargument;setsouttheuniquechallengesinvolvedindesigningbestpracticeconditionalitytodealwithclimatechange-thefocusoftheRSTso

3、far;andmakesthreespecificsuggestionstoaddressshortcomingsintheemergingconditionalitytomakethemostoftheIMFsnewinitiativetohelpmembercountriesbuildresilienceandsustainability.TheIMFhasadapteditsapproachbasedoninitialexperience.AforthcomingExecutiveBoardreviewwillallowforfurthercoursecorrectionandmuch-

4、neededgreatertractionfortheRST.PO1.ICYPAPER324MARCH2024TheIMF,sResilienceandSustainabilityTrust:HowConditionalityCanHelpCountriesBuildResilienceJohnHicklinCenterforGlobalDevelopmentTheauthorisgratefulforhelpfulconversationswithDavidAndrews,SanjeevGupta,KathrynMCPhai1.MarkPlant,andEtienneRomsom,andfo

5、rcommentsfromtwoanonymousreviewers;andisresponsibleforanyremainingerrors.JohnHicklin.2024.wThelMF,sResilienceandSustainabilityTrust:HowConditionalityCanHelpCountriesBuildResilience.*CGDPolicyPaper324.Washington,DC:CenterforGlobalDevelopmenthttps：/www.cgdev.orgpublication/imfs-rst-how-conditionality-

6、can-help-countries-build-resilienceCENTERFORG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENTTheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentworkstoreduceglobal20551.Street,NWFifthFloorWashington,DC200361AbbeyGardensGreatCollegeStreet1.ondonSW1P3SEpovertyandimprovelivesthroughinnovativeeconomicresearchthatdrivesbetterpolicyandpracticebytheworldst

7、opdecisionmakers.UseanddisseminationofthisPolicyPaperisencouraged;however,reproducedcopiesmaynotbeusedforcommercialpurposes.FurtherusageispermittedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommerciaI4.0International1.icense.www.cgdev.orgCenterforGlobalDevelopment.2024.TheviewsexpressedinCGDPol

8、icyPapersarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtotheboardofdirectors,fundersoftheCenterforGlobalDevelopment,ortheauthorsrespectiveorganizations.ContentsA. Backgroundandsummaryofargument1B. Theexceptionalpolicychallengesposedbyclimatechange7Theurgencytoaddresstheexceptionalrisksofclimatechange8

9、Theexceptionalsizeofthefinancingrequirements10Thecomplexityofthedomesticpolicychallenge11Theweaknessofdomesticaccountabilityforclimatechangepolicies12Thefailuresintheglobalsystemofaccountability13C. AmoreambitiousapproachtoRSFconditionality14Bestpracticeconditionality15MainfeaturesofRSFconditionalit

10、ysofar16AddressingtheshortcomingsofRSFconditionality17Issue1.MaximizingRSFeffectivenessthroughgreatertransparencyandaccountability17Proposal1.Establishanewmechanismfortransparencyandaccountability18Issue2.IncreasingRSFeffectivenessbyfocusonafew“IMF-focused”criticalactions21Proposal2.Focusmoreclearly

11、onafewcriticalactions22Issue3.IncreasingtheurgencyofRSFengagementwithasmanycountriesaspossible24Proposal3.Introducealow-accesscredittranchetotheRSF25TheparallelneedforamajorinitiativetostrengthenArticleIVsurveillanceforallmembers26References.271.istofBoxes1. Theescalatingrisksandcostsofclimatechange

12、82. Accountabilitygapsintheframeworkofinternationalcooperation13A. BackgroundandsummaryofargumentTheIMFformallyestablisheditsnewResilienceandSustainabilityTrust(RST)inApril2022withitsdeclaredpurpose,tohelpcountriesbuildresiliencetoexternalshocksandensuresustainablegrowth,contributingtotheirlong-term

13、balanceofpaymentsstability.SeeIMFstatementandpolicypaper(IMF,April18,2022)andAndrews,PlantandHickJIn,TheIMFsRSTHaSMetContributorsWishes-NowItMustMeetBorrowersNeeds!(CGDblog.May10,2022).AnOperationalGuidanceNotewasissuedinNovember2023(IMF,November28,2023).Thefocushassofarbeenexclusivelytoaddressthech

14、allengeOfclimatechangethoughpandemicpreparednesswasidentifiedasanotherareatobecovered,withthepossibilityofaddingothertopicsatalaterstage.Inall,143countriesweredeemedeligibleinprinciple.TheimmediateimpetusfortheIMF,sinitiativecameinthemidstoftheglobalpandemic.TheunprecedentedallocationinAugust2021ofs

15、ome$650billionworthofSpecialDrawingRights(SDRs)toIMFmembercountrieswasaccompaniedbyapledgefromthelargesteconomies-whohadnoneedofthelion,ssharetheyreceivedoftheadditionalSDRs-torecycleor*re-channe,$100billionworthofSDRstocountriesingreaterneedofthem.SeeG20Rome1.eadersDeclaration(G20,2021).Partwasenvi

16、sagedtobolstertheIMF,sPovertyReductionandGrowthFacility(PRGT)withsomescopealsotochannelthroughothermultilateralinstitutions.Some$44billionwastargetedforthenewRST,ofwhichsome$36billioncouldbelentoutwiththeremaindersetasidetoprovideagainstliquidityandcreditrisk.Bytheend-December2023,theRSThadsecuredtotalpledgesofSDR31.9billion($42.8billion),ofwhi