亚开行-使用贝叶斯状态空间方法估计区域整合（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、ESTIMATINGREGIONA1.INTEGRATIONUSINGTHEBAYESIANSTATE-SPACEAPPROACHManuel1.eonardAlbis,MaraClaireTayag,andJongWooKangNO.7I2January2024ADBECONOMICSWORKINGPAPERSERIESADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesEstimatingRegionalIntegrationUsingtheBayesianState-SpaceApproachManuel1.eonardAlbis,MaraClaireTayag,andJongW

2、ooKangNo.712IJanuary2024TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBoritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.Manuel

3、1.eonardAlbis(mhlbisup.edu.ph)isanassistantprofessorattheSchoolofStatistics,UniversityofthePhilippines.MaraClaireTayag(mtayagadb.org)isasenioreconomicsofficerandJongWooKang(jkangadb.org)isthedirectoroftheRegionalCooperationandIntegrationDivision,EconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartment,AsianDe

4、velopmentBank.ICreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGo)2024AsianDevelopmentBank6ADBAvenue.MandaluyongCity,ISSOMetroManila.PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2024.ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(electronic)PublicationStockNo.WpS2306222DOI:Theviewsexpress

5、edinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesOfcheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.Thementionofspeci

6、ficcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothe

7、legalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps:/

8、www.adb.0rg/terms-use#0penaccess.ThisCChtmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedcoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial.Pleasecontactpubsmarketingadb.orgifyo

9、uhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo.CorrigendacoADBpublicationsmaybefoundatNote:Inthispublication,*$referstoUnitedStatesdollars.ABSTRACTEstimatingregionalintegrationfacesch

10、allengesbecauseofincompletedatafrommissingvaluesandinsufficienttimespans.AkeyadvantageofadynamicfactormodelestimatedusingtheBayesianstate-spaceapproachisitsabilitytohandlemissingvaluesandaggregationoftheregionalintegrationindicators.Thisapproachyieldsestimatesofbilateraleconomicintegration(BEI)using

11、regionalintegrationindicatorsonfourdimensions:trade,foreigndirectinvestments,finance,andmigration.Theregionalintegrationindex(RH)isderivedbyapplyingnetworkdensitytotheBEIestimatestorepresentthestrengthofregionalintegrationwithinAsiaandthePacific.TheBEIindexesnotonlyservetoestimatetheoverallRllbutena

12、bletheidentificationofeconomypairsanddimensionsthataredrivingregionalintegrationinAsiaandthePacific.TheestimatedRllforAsiaandthePacificdeclinedslightlyinrecentyears,andtheintegrationnetworkbecamemorecenteredaroundthePeople,sRepublicofChina.Keywords:Bayesianstate-spacemodel,networkdensity,regionalint

13、egrationindexJE1.codes:F02,F15,C81C11TheauthorsthankJoshuaGapay,KevinQuizon,DonnaBajaro,andDominiqueSyfortheirexcellentresearchsupport.1. IntroductionComplete,comprehensive,andcomparativeregionalintegrationindexes(RIIs)canplayanimportantroleinmonitoringtheprogressinregionalintegrationandderivingpoli

14、cyimplicationsonregionalcooperation.Thesuccessoftargetedregionaldevelopmentprogramsandpoliciescandependonaccurateassessmentofaspecificeconomyacrossdifferentaspectsofintegration.However,estimatingthedegreeofregionalintegrationisnosimplematter.Theavailabilityofnumerousintegrationindicators,questionsab

15、outhowsuchindicatorsareaggregated,andincompletedataresultingfrommissingvaluesandinadequatetimespansareamongfactorsthatcreatechallenges.Thispaper,inacknowledgingthecomplexities,aimstooutlinemethodstogenerateregionalintegrationmeasuresattheeconomy-pairlevel.ThiscanbeusedtocreateanRlldescribingthecolle

16、ctiveeconomiccohesivenessofalleconomiesinAsiaandthePacific.AsiaandthePacific,orAsia,consistsofthe49regionalmembereconomiesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).ThecompositionofeconomiesforCentralAsia,EastAsia,thePacificandOceania,SouthAsia,andSoutheastAsiaisoutlinedin:ADB.AsiaRegionalIntegrationCenter.EconomyGroupings.AdynamicfactormodelestimatedthroughtheBayesianstate-spaceapproachisusedtogeneratei