牛津经济研究院-啤酒在低收入国家的经济贡献（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、够IiFN屈油CSOFBEERIN1.OWERINCOMECOUNTRIESTAB1.EOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary41. Introduction62. Thebeersectorseconomicfootprint83. Beerconsumption143.1 Beerconsumptionpatterns143.2 Beerconsumptioninthecontextofthebroaderalcoholindustry164. Thebeersectorspotentialtogrowinlowerincomecountries184.1 Modelling

2、approach184.2 Beersectorspotentialtocontributemoretolowerincomeeconomies185. Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumptioninlowerincomecountries225.1 Factorsinfluencingalcoholconsumption2252Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumption226. Conclusionsandfutureresearchrecommendations26Appendix286.1Beersconsumptionovertime28

3、62Modellingframework28$34billionThebeersector,scontributiontoGDPinlowerincomecountries.TheaveragecontributiontoGDPwas1.6%acrosslowerincomecountriesin2019,comparedto0.9%acrosshighincomecountries.67millionJobssupportedbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.IMlfflTMEXECUTIVESUMMARYIn2022zwepublishedastu

4、dyoftheglobalbeersectorseconomicfootprintacross70countries,conductedonbehalfoftheWorldwideBrewingAllianceusing2019data.Onemainfindingofourpreviousstudyisthatthebeersectorseconomicsignificanceissubstantiallylargeracrosslowerincomeeconomies.Inthisreport,weinvestigatefurthertheimportanceofthebeersector

5、inlowerincomeeconomies.Webeginbyexaminingwhythebeersectorseconomicsignificanceisgreaterinlowerincomecountries,andthenanalysehowbeerconsumptionvariesacrosscountries.Wealsoexplorehowtheseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtheriftheshareofbeerconsumptionrose,whilekeepingoverallalcoholicbev

6、erageconsumptionlevelconstant.Weconcludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.Thebeersectoralreadysupportslargersharesofeconomicvalueinlowerincomeeconomies.In2019zthebeersectorscontributiontoGDPaveraged1.6%acrosslowerincomecountries,almostdoubleitscontributiontoGDPinhighincomecountries(anaverageof0.9

7、%ofnationalGDP).Thebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesalsosupportedmorejobsinbothabsoluteandrelativeterms(anaverageof1.4%ofnationalemploymentversus1.1%inhighincomecountries),whichcouldbeexplainedbythelowerlevelsoflabourproductivityandamoreprominentroleofagricultureinthesecountries.Thebeersectorinthesec

8、ountriesisalsocharacterisedbyalessprominentroleofthedownstreamsegment(accountingforonly39%ofthesectorsgrossvalueaddedcontribution,comparedto62%inhighincomecountries)andalowerlevelofinternationalisation(nearlyallthebeersoldinlowerincomecountriesisproduceddomestically,comparedtohighincomecountrieswher

9、eanaverage12%ofsalesbydownstreambusinessesisimportedfromoverseas).Beerconsumptiontendstobelowerinlowerincomecountriescomparedtotherestoftheworld.Theaveragepersoninlowerincomecountriesconsumesonlyonethirdofthebeerconsumedbytheircounterpartsinhighincomecountries.Despitelowerpricesandlowerlevelsofconsu

10、mption,consumersinlowerincomecountriesallocatealargershareoftheirdisposableincometobeercomparedtoindividualsacrossothercountryincomegroups.OXFORDECONOMICSThisindicatesbeeriscomparativelylessaffordableinlowerincomecountries.Furthermore,wefindthatdemandforbeerincreasesClisproportionallyatlowincomeleve

11、ls(i.e.zamonglowerincomecountries),butismuchlessincomesensitiveascountriesbecomericher.Thissuggeststhatbeerbehavesasaluxurygood“inlowerincomeeconomies,asopposedtoanormalgood“inhighincomecountries.Whilethesegeneralobservationsaremadebasedonconsumptionpatterns,wearenotabletodrawanyconclusionsaboutthes

12、ignificanceorcausalityoftherelationshipbetweendisposableincomeandbeerconsumption.$67Averagepercapitaexpenditureonbeerinlowerincomecountries,significantlylowerthanthe$403spentinhighincomecountries.Thebeersectorcouldmakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlowerincomecountriesifbeerwasalargershareoftotala

13、lcoholconsumption.Weestimatethattotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionbythebeersectorcouldrisetoanaverageof2.2%ofGDPacrosslowerincomeeconomies.ThesectorspotentialtogrowisfoundtobegreatestinIndia,Ethiopia,andGhana.Thereareseveralconstraintstothebeersectorspotentialtomakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlow

14、erincomecountries.Whenaccountingforalcoholcontentandvolume,beerisrelativelymoreexpensivethanspiritsacrosscountriesofallincomegroups,withalargerdifferencefoundamonglowerincomecountries.1.ookingatexcisedutiesbyethanolcontent,beerisalsotaxedmorethanspiritsacrosslowerincomecountries.Beyondprices,therear

15、eotherfactorstoconsiderthatcaninfluencepeoplezsdecisionstoconsumebeer,includingtastesandculturaldifferences.Incertaincountries,spirits,wine,andotheralcoholicbeveragesarepreferredandmorepopularthanbeer.+$37biThepotentialincreaseincontributionstoGDPbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesifbeerconsumptionlevelsrosetoourCounterfactualscenario.Thereishowevermuchlefttoexploreinrelationtothistopic.Somepossibleextensionstothisstudycouldinvolvelookingattheoverallmacroeconomicimpactofincreasedbeerconsumptionontheeconomy;assessingtaxframeworksforalcohol;investigatingtheimpactofunrecordedalcoholconsumption