【消费洞察分析报告】麦肯锡-中国消费：新时代的开始（英）-6页.docx

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1、McKinsey&CompanyNovember2023ChinaBriefChinaConsumption:StartofaNewEraDanielZipser,Leader,McKinseyAsiaConsumer&RetailPracticeAfteranencouragingstartinthefirstquarterofthisyear,second-quarterandthird-quarterconsumptiondataconfirmswhatmanyintheindustryhavealreadycometoaccept:theeraofdouble-digitgrowthi

2、nChina,sretailsectorisover.whencomparedtothealreadysubduedthirdquarterofthepandemic-impacted2022.Despiteapromising7.5percentuptickinretailsalesinOctober,therearecurrentlyfewindicationsthatChinawillseeafundamentalreversalinthistrend.(Exhibit1)Third-quarterretailsalesofgoodsgrewbyonly3percent,withther

3、ecentDoubleElevenshoppingfestivalekingoutamere2percentincreaseoverthepreviousyear.Thisslowdownisevidentacrossvariouscategories,includingcosmetics(3percent),clothing(4percent),andappliances(0.8percent),Exhibit1ChinamacroeconomicandconsumptionindicatorsMacroeconomic indicatorsYoY growth in percent1Gro

4、wthofkeyconsumerproductcategoriesYoYgrowthinpercent1vs. 2022vs.2022Q32YTD3Q32YTD35.2%5.5%18.7%126.7%5.3%6.8%10.6%-0.6%6.7%Allvehicles37%EVs1.Volumeforautos(CATARC),valueforothercategories2. Q3growthdataiscalculatedbasedonmonthlyvaluedata,exceptforGDPgrowthwhichisdirectlyreleasedbyNBS3. January-Septe

5、mber2023Source:NBS,CATARC,CAACDespiteinitialsignsofrecoveryinconsumersentimentearlierintheyear,ithassinceplateaued,hoveringarounditsall-timelowsinceApril.Factorscontributingtothisincludeasignificantdropinresidentialpropertytransactionsapastpillarofwealthcreationalongsidedecliningexportsandconcernsab

6、outgeopoliticaltensions.(Exhibit2)Residential property transactions (sqm) Index 2019=100, adjusted for seasonality (3-month moving average)Exhibit2ResidentialpropertytransactionsandconsumerconfidenceConsumerconfidenceindex(CCI)1Monthly1.Theindex/SUb-indexrangesbetween0and200.100isthemedian,indicatin

7、gthatconsumerconfidenceisneutral.0indicatesextremepessimism;200reflectsextremeoptimismSource:NBSDespitea5percentsurveyedunemploymentrateinurbanareasandacontinued6percentannualincreaseindisposableincomes,includingin2023,consumersremaincautiousaboutspending,especiallyonproperties.Householdsavingsrates

8、arestillsignificantlyhigherthanpre-COVIDlevels(34percentversus30percent),withlimitedsignsyetoftheadditionalRMB53trillioninsavingsaccumulatedsince2020beingfunneledintoconsumption.ThisequatestoanextraRMB38,000inthebankaccountsofeachconsumer,awaitingexpenditure.Anotableexceptionistheservicesector,parti

9、cularlyintravelandentertainment.Afteryearsofrestrictedmobility,theresrenewedenthusiasmfortravelandsocializinginrestaurantsandbars(bothsectorstoppedthelistintermsofrateofgrowthinMcKinsey,smostrecentConsumerWiselsurveyofChineseconsumers).Foodservicesectorgrowth-arobust19percentyear-to-dateand14percent

10、inQ3over2022ispartlyduetoalowercomparativebasefrompreviousyearsandconsumers*increasedspendingondiningandtravel.Domestictravelhasreboundedtosurpass2019levels,andtraveltoHongKong,Taiwan,andMacaoisapproachingpre-pandemicfigures(83percentof2019levelsinSeptember).Whileinternationaltravelremainsataroundha

11、lfof2019levels,thisisprimarilyattributedtovisarestrictionsandhighflightprices.Theshiftfromproducttoserviceconsumptionisexpectedtocontinueinto2024.(Exhibit3)Exhibit3GrowthinairtravelPre-COVID-19level=100,month-by-monthcomparisonDomestic (excl. HK/TW/MC)Hong Kong/Taiwan/MacauInternationalSource： CAACD

12、oubleElevenDoubleEleven,theworld,slargestshoppingfestival,warrantscloserexamination.Thisyear,whilesalesinchedupbyjust2percentoverlastyear,itnonethelessreachedastaggeringRMB1.1trillioninGMVacrossallplatforms,surpassingtheannualconsumptionofsomeentireeconomies.Theeventssheerscaleoffersvaluableinsights

13、intoChineseconsumerbehavior:The2percentgrowthoveranalreadyflat2022wasdrivenbydiscountsandpromotions,withtheaveragesellingprice(ASP)decliningformajorbrandscomparedtolastyear.Categoriesexperiencinggrowthareconsistentwithtrendsobservedthroughouttheyear,suchasfootwear,foodandbeverage,andsportsandoutdoor

14、.Appliancesandforthefirsttimebeautyandpersonalcarehaveseennotabledeclinescomparedtolastyear.Livestreamingcontinuesitsupwardtrajectory.Traditionale-commerceSlightlydeclinedduringDoubleEleven,whileIivestreamingsurgedbyapproximately20percent,contributingto20percentofthetotalGMV.Thisgrowth,amplifiedbyst

15、rongplatformsupport,reflectsongoingtrendsin2023.Majorplatformshaveheavilyinvestedintrafficsupportandproductsubsidies,withKuaishoualoneprovidingRMB2billioninproductsubsidiesand18billionintrafficsupport.Over60percentofthetop58Tmall/TaobaoIivestreamingchannels,eachwithoverRMB100millioninGMV,areoperated

16、bybrandsratherthanKOLs.Thisunderscoreshow,morethanever,brandsareembracingIivestreamingasapowerfulshoppingchannel.Weanticipatefurtherinnovationinthisarea,withbrandsincreasinglyfocusingoncontentoverdiscount-drivenstrategiesandexploringwaystoleveragetheirphysicalretailinfrastructure.Premiumbrandscontin