农村小额信贷的可持续发展问题论文.docx

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1、农村小额信贷的可持续发展问题A Research on the Sustainability of the Rural Microfinance农村小额信贷的可持续发展问题摘要作为青少年社会责任基金会（Social Responsibility Foundation）的创立人和主要组织者，我们将自己在中国农村利用小额信贷支农扶贫的社会实践中遇到的问题，通过亲自数据采集，用数学模型的方法进行表达、分析、并求解。得到的解决方案将在四个小额信贷扶贫机构和P2P宜农贷平台上进行测试和验证。农村小额信贷作为一种金融创新，有着双重目标：1）较大规模地服务于客户群体，实现扶贫2）实现机构自身的可持续发展。中

2、国小额信贷机构能否设计合理的利率，是实现可持续发展的关键。虽然小额信贷是作为一种提供给穷人的金融服务，但是它反映的是一种正常信贷关系。这决定了小额信贷机构不是一种单纯意义上的扶贫机构，它的业务也应该是一种正常的金融业务。尽管小额信贷的发放不以盈利为目的，但也有适合的利率才能弥补其各项成本，使机构正常经营下去。本文的主要目的就是讨论农村小额信贷利率的科学定价和机构可持续发展的关系。我们按照成本相加定价模式，推导出利率公式，用亲自采集的现有数据，利用logit模型计算出维持机构可持续发展的贷款利率。计算目前贷款采用的名义利率对应的年化有效利率，把二者相比较。用维持假设坏账率为2%的利率，计算出各机

3、构未来十年的贷款规模发展水平。帮助各机构计算出相应的年化有效利率，设计出多种不同的名义利率和还款方式，以实现他们自设的未来五年在贷款规模方面的发展目标。我们通过分析利率与出贷金额间的关系，发现利率越高，能吸引的贷款人数越少，导致出贷金额的降低。近似地认为出贷金额函数是利率的单调递减函数。引入相对变化量，以此为基础建立出贷金额相对变化量与利率相对变化量间的关系，此时，设定变化量系数,利率变化1导致出贷金额变化倍数增长，即变化k。再在此基础之上，建立收益、利率、出贷金额以及投资者所收取利润间的关系。分析当的取值使z有最大值时，在初始利率的基础上增加该利率的倍，则得出适合可持续发展的利率。关键词：农

4、村小额信贷； 年化有效利率； 名义利率； 小额信贷的可持续发展。A Research on the Sustainability of the Rural MicrofinanceAbstract: Being the founder and leaders of an NGO Social Responsibility Foundation (SRF), the authors call upon urban students at all ages to get involved in community services that reach out and help millions

5、of rural Chinese in need through microfinance. Restricted by urban-rural duel economy structure, rural finance lags behind of urban finance as a whole in China as in most developing countries. Rural microfinance has grown rapidly to help eradicating poverty in China.There are two objectives in rural

6、 microfinance practice 1) alleviating poverty in rural community 2) sustainability. In order to achieve these goals, it is crucial to set an appropriate interest rate that a microfinance institution needs to realize on its loans.In our rural micro-credit research and practice, we collect data from f

7、our rural microfinance institutions that SRF helps to raise fund through Yinongdai (宜农贷) P2P microfinance platform; we use mathematical modeling method to express, analyze, solve the interest rate setting problem, and find feasible plans for the institutions to grow in a healthy way in their future

8、practice of microfinance ; well also test and verify the solution and plans through our collaboration with the four rural microfinance institutions.We use the Cost-plus loan-pricing model and Logit model to find the ideal annualized effective interest rate to maintain sustainability, compare it with

9、 the rate computed with the collected data and the nominal interest rate. We also provide a table for each institution that shows its ten-year gross loan development estimation to help them with the business planning and financial projections. We compute a five-year annualized effective interest rat

10、e plan for the institutions to grow at a steady rate to achieve their target in terms of the size of their loan portfolios. For each annualized effective interest rate, we design several nominal interest rates and repayment plans for the institutions to apply in their current and future practice of

11、microfinance.Restricted by the policies in China, microfinance institutions cannot be built on commercial funding sources. Charity donations, government funding and private loans are the main feed for the fund. The four institutions that work closely with us do not have government funding source. In

12、 this case, higher interest rate is not only necessary to pave the road of a sustainable business for them, but also contributes to build up the size of their loan portfolios. However, the interest rate hike cannot go too far because the institutions have to face competitions from the rural banks an

13、d rural credit cooperatives backed by the government. In this case, we have to limit our interest rate to an appropriate level since higher rate may decrease our rate of total loan lent, which then lower the total return of the loans. This factor will then affect the sustainability of the institutio

14、ns and its development. We use a math model to describe the relations between the changes of the yield, interest rate, total loan lent, and the total cost of the loan operations, and then find the appropriate interest rate to support the institutions sustainability.Key words：Rural microfinance; Annu

15、alized Effective Interest Rate; Nominal Interest Rate; Sustainability农村小额信贷的可持续发展问题农村小额信用贷款是基于农户的信誉，在核定的额度和期限内，向农户发放的不需抵押、担保的贷款。我国政府一直大力推进农户小额信用贷款，但实际上，贷款的供给远未满足需求，因为这种贷款的发放是面对处于弱势的农民、弱质的农业和落后的农村.农村小额信贷作为一种金融创新，有着双重目标：1）较大规模地服务于客户群体，实现扶贫2）实现机构自身的可持续发展。中国小额信贷机构能否设计合理的利率，是实现可持续发展和不断扩大规模的关键。问题：农村小额信贷利率

16、的科学定价1. 小额贷款具有额度小操作成本高、投资于农村市场的风险高等特点。因此，它的利率远高于商业银行。小额贷款机构要有较高的存贷差才能维持可持续运营。2. 开展农村小额信贷的目的在于支持农业帮助贫困农户，而高利率增大了农民的负担，因此，较合理的利率水平对小额信贷来说至关重要。3. 与利率直接相关的主要有资金成本和机构运作成本，目前宜农贷给投资人每年2%的固定回报,用于维护宜农贷P2P平台的成本为出贷总额的1%，既资金成本为出贷总额的103%。机构运作成本在于管理费用，包括小额贷款机构的房租、水电、日常办公品消耗、信贷员的工资和奖金等。机构管理的贷款总额越高，需要聘用的信贷员的数目也越多。当每个信贷员负责的贷款个案越多，效率就越高。但是，当超过一定限度后，由于信贷员太忙，贷前审核、贷前的信贷教育就可能马虎，收贷就不一定及时，导致出现贷款拖欠甚至坏账率的上升。因此，对于固定贷款总额，信贷员的数目会影响管理费用，从