世界经济论坛-转变能源需求（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、IncollaborationwithPwCWQRLDECONOMICF(DRUMTransformingEnergyDemandWHITEPAPERJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 Whytransformingenergydemandmatters52 Thethreeenergydemandlevers113 Businesssolutions-overallapproach134 Businesssolutions-selectedinterventionsforchange15inbuil

2、dings,industryandtransport4.1 Industry164.2 Buildings244.3 Transport295 Governmentleadership33Conclusion37Appendix38A1Modellingmethodology38Contributors40Endnotes44DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandn

3、dusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollatorativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereprodu

4、cedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024TransformingEnergyDemandForewordAnaBotinExecutiveChairman,TheSantanderGroup;Chair,InternationalBusinessCouncilBobMorrtzGlobalChair,PwC;Member,InternationalBusinessCouncilOliv

5、ierSchwabManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForumAstheglobalenergysystemundergoesarapidtransformation,leadersacrossallsectorsneedtollaboratetoaelerateanenergytransitionthatcreatespositiveoutcomesforpeople,societyandtheplanet.Theprivatesectorcanplayaleadingroleindrivingthistransformation.Thatiswhyayearago

6、,theInternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC),agroupthattogetherrepresents3%ofglobalenergyuse,decidedtofocusonenergydemand.Thisisanunder-addressedareathatwillallowustoincreaseeconomicoutput,whilereducinggreenhousegasemissions(GHG)anddrivingupglobalaccesstoenergy.Ourresearchshowsthattherearemanytangibleactio

7、nsthatallbusinessescantaketodaytoactonenergydemand.Thepotentialofthisdemand-sideactionisextraordinary,offeringashort-term,cost-efficient31%reductionofdemand,sharedacrossalleconomicsectors.Thesegainsaredeliverablenow,atattractivereturns,needingnonewtechnology.Suchconcertedactionwouldunlockgrowthandpr

8、oductivitywhilegettingtheworldbackontracktomeetthetargetssetsbytheParisAgreement.Atthesametime,itwouldsupportdeliveryofthepledgebyover120countriesatCOP28todoubletheglobalaverageannualrateofenergyefficiencyimprovement.Thesefindingsshouldbeexcitingforallleaders,ingrowthandmaturemarketsalike,andwethank

9、alltheIBCmembersfortheirsupportindrivingthiswork.Ourambitionistogettheworldtoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyitseffortstoreachnetzero.Wehopethispaperwillinspiremanyotherbusinessesandgovernmentstojointhiseffort.Thereisnotimetolose.ExecutivesummaryActionsonenergydemandcanbetakenbyallcompaniesnow,arepro

10、fitableandcanaccelerateprogresstowardsclimategoals.Thevalueofactiononenergydemandiscompelling:apossible31%reductioninenergyintensityandupto$2trillioninannualsavingsifmeasuresweretobetakenby2030(seeAppendix,A1:Methodology).Reducingenergyintensity-energyusedperunitofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)-wouldboos

11、tgrowthbyenablingpreviouslywastedorover-utilizedenergytoberedirectedtomoreproductiveactivities.Itwouldalsohelpmpaniessavecashandmaintaincompetitiveadvantagewhilereducingemissions.Thispaperoutlinesthevalueofactionsonenergydemandfromtheprivateandpublicsectorsandhowtodeliverthem.Actionsaredoabletoday,a

12、tattractivereturnswithexistingtechnology,andsoitisbelievedthisestablishesacompellingcasetoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyinthejourneytonetzero.Findingawaytoreduceorevenreversethepaceofenergydemandgrowthwhilesupportingeconomicoutputiscritical.By2050,theworldspopulationwillgrowbytwobillion,andGDPisfor

13、ecasttodouble.Emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiesneedabundantandlow-costenergytoenablegrowthandmeetdevelopmentgoals.Simultaneously,theworldistargetingsupplydecarbonization.Actingondemandandsupplysimultaneouslyisthebestwaytoachievethesechanges.Actingonenergyconsumptionisdoable,affordableandprofitab

14、le.Thisresearchshowsthatallcompaniesandcountriescanuseexistingleverstoreduceenergyintensity.Acrossbuildings,industryandtransport(BIT),InternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC)examplesillustratethattheseactions,wheresupportedbyappropriatepublicpolicy,canenabletheworldtoreduceitsenergyneedsbyapproximatelyathi

15、rdwhilefreeingfurthereconomicoutput.Affordabilityisalsoclear,withinterventionspotentiallyfullypaidbackgloballywithinadecade,drivingestimatedannualsavingsintherangeof$2trillion.Threeleverscandeliverthischange.First,t,energysavings-operationalimprovementinterventionsfundedthroughoperatingexpenditure(OpEx).Resultsaretypicallyimmediatebutoftenoverlookedastheyrequirecoordinatingmanyinterventionsacrossanorganizationandconstantenergycostimprovement.Energyefficiencypoolsmeasuresunderdirectcompanycontrolthatrequirecapitalexpenditure(CapEx).Together,savingsandefficiencieso