亚开行-CAREC地区的铁路运输走廊：长期供应链弹性和短期冲击（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_.docx

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1、/ADBInstitute.ADBIWorkingPaperSeriesRAILTRANSPORTCORRIDORSINTHECARECREGION:LONG-TERMSUPPLYCHAINRESILIENCEANDSHORT-TERMSHOCKSRichardPomfretNo.1422December2023AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteRichardPomfretisanAdjunctProfessorofInternationalEconomics,TheJohnsHopkinsUniversitySAISEurope,Bologna,ItalyandPro

2、fessorofEconomicsEmeritus,UniversityofAdelaide,Australia.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperaretheviewsoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofADBI5ADB1itsBoardofDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBIdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispaperandacceptsnoresponsibilityfor

3、anyconsequencesoftheiruse.TerminologyusedmaynotnecessarilybeconsistentwithADBofficialterms.Discussionpapersaresubjecttoformalrevisionandcorrectionbeforetheyarefinalizedandconsideredpublished.TheWorkingPaperseriesisacontinuationoftheformerlynamedDiscussionPaperseries;thenumberingofthepaperscontinuedw

4、ithoutinterruptionorchange.ADBsworkingpapersreflectinitialideasonatopicandarepostedonlinefordiscussion.Someworkingpapersmaydevelopintootherformsofpublication.TheAsianDevelopmentBankrefersto“China”asthePeoplesRepublicofChinaandtoKorea”astheRepublicofKorea.Suggestedcitation:Pomfret,R.2023.RailTranspor

5、tCorridorsintheCARECRegion:Long-TermSupplyChainResilienceandShort-TermShocks.ADBIWorkingPaper1422.Tokyo:AsianDevelopmentBankInstitute.Available:Pleasecontacttheauthorsforinformationaboutthispaper.Email:richard.pomfretadelaide.edu.auThispaperdrawsonarelatedpaper,ConnectingEurasianSupplyChains:TheImpa

6、ctofCOVID-19andtheRussia-UkraineWarontheEU-ChinaRailLandbridge,whichwaspresentedattheAmericanEconomicAssociationannualmeetingsinNewOrleans6-8January2023.Iamgratefultothediscussant,RadkhaMeneshova,attheADBIEastWestLogisticsForumTransportCorridorsintheCARECRegionwon26-27September2023andtotwoanonymousr

7、efereesforhelpfulcomments.AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteKasumigasekiBuilding,8thFloor3-2-5Kasumigaseki,Chiyoda-kuTokyo100-6008,JapanTel:+81-3-3593-5500Fax:+81-3-3593-5571URL:www.adbi.orgE-mail:infoadbi.org2023AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteAbstractInternationalsupplychainsaredependentoneaseofcrossingbo

8、rdersandefficientconnectivityintermsofprice,speed,andreliability.InitiallyrespondingtodemandfromautomobileandelectronicsfirmstoconnecttheirEuropeanandChinesesupplychainswithfasterandmorereliablefreightservicesthanmaritimeshipping,theEurasianrailtransportcorridorwasestablishedinthe201Os.TherailLandbr

9、idgewasresilientthroughdeterioratingEU-RussianFederationrelationsafter2014andthe2020-2021COVID-19epidemic.However,followingtheRussianinvasionofUkraineandinclusionoftheRussianrailcompanyinwesternsanctionsinFebruary2022,trafficgrowthalongthemainLandbridgeroutesstalled.Thispaperanalyzestheresponseofsup

10、plychainmanagersin2022-2023tothesanctions,andtheroleofpublicpolicyincreatingreliablealternativeroutes.DiversificationandstrengtheningofEurasianrailcorridorsbenefitCentralAsiaRegionalEconomicCooperation(CAREC)membersthroughrevenuesfromtransitfees.Moreimportantisthereductionintransportcostsfortradeamo

11、ngCARECmembersandwithothercountries,whichcansupporteconomicstrategiesaimedateconomicdiversification.Keywords:supplychains,connectivity,Eurasia,LandbridgeJELClassification:F13Contents1. INTRODUCTION12. ESTABLISHMENTANDDEVELOPMENTOFTHELANDBRIDGE,2011-202123. PROMOTINGALTERNATIVESTOTHEMAINLINES44. THER

12、USSIANINVASIONOFUKRAINEANDEURASIANRAILCONNECTIONS.65. COSTSANDBENEFITSTOCARECMEMBERSOFALTERNATIVEROUTES96. CONCLUSIONS10REFERENCES12APPENDIX:MEASURINGTRAFFICALONGTHELANDBRIDGE141. INTRODUCTIONAmajorfeatureofCAREC,stransportandtradefacilitationworkhasbeentheidentificationofcorridors,alongwhichhardand

13、softinfrastructureimprovementscanbecoordinatedtofacilitatetrade.Animportantsteptowardsevidence-basedpolicymakingwastheestablishmentoftheCorridorPerformanceMonitoringandManagementprogram,currentlyrunundertheaegisoftheCARECInstitute,whoseheadlinemeasuresreportspeedalongcorridors,highlightingtheimporta

14、nceoftimeaswellascostforfacilitatingsupplychaintrade.Intermsofrapidgrowthintrafficandincreasedspeed,asubsetofcorridorsformingarailLandbridgebetweenthePeoplesRepublicofChina(PRC)andEuropeandinvolvingalmostallCARECmembercountriesstandsout.Internationalsupplychainsaredependentoneaseofcrossingbordersand

15、onefficientconnectivityintermsofprice,speed,andreliability,andefficientsupplychainmanagementreliesonjust-in-timedeliveryandminimizationofinventories,whetherheldatproductionpointsorintransit.NonstoprailservicesbetweenthePRCandEuropewereestablishedinthe2010stomeetdemandfromEuropeancarcompaniessendingc

16、omponentstofactoriesinthePRCandfromelectronicsfirmssendingcomputersandprintersfromthelattertotheirEuropeanmarketingcenters.The intensification of international supply chains during the last four decades has been easier in some parts of the world than others and so-called global value chains have been primarily regional value chains, centered on East Asia, Europe, an